Assimilation of SST Data into a Real-Time Coastal Ocean Forecast System for the U.S. East Coast*

This paper discusses the needs to establish a capability to provide real-time regional ocean forecasts and the feasibility of producing them on an operational basis. Specifically, the development of a Regional Ocean Forecast System using the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) as a prototype and its application to the East Coast of the U.S. are presented. The ocean forecasts are produced using surface forcing from the Eta model, the operational mesoscale weather prediction model at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). At present, the ocean forecast model, called the East Coast-Regional Ocean Forecast System (EC-ROFS) includes assimilation of sea surface temperatures from in situ and satellite data and sea surface height anomalies from satellite altimeters. Examples of forecast products, their evaluation, problems that arose during the development of the system, and solutions to some of those problems are also discussed. Even though work is still in progress to improve the performance of EC-ROFS, it became clear that the forecast products which are generated can be used by marine forecasters if allowances for known model deficiencies are taken into account. The EC-ROFS became fully operational at NCEP in March 2002, and is the first forecast system of its type to become operational in the civil sector of the United States.

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Towards an operational nowcast/forecast system for the U.S. east coast

Modern Approaches to Data Assimilation in Ocean Modeling - Elsevier Oceanography Series ◽

10.1016/s0422-9894(96)80016-x ◽

1996 ◽

pp. 347-376 ◽

Cited By ~ 21

Author(s):

F. Aikman ◽

G.L. Mellor ◽

T. Ezer ◽

D. Sheinin ◽

P. Chen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

East Coast ◽

Forecast System ◽

The U.S

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Spatial Distribution and Evolution of Extratropical Cyclone Errors over North America and its Adjacent Oceans in the NCEP Global Forecast System Model

Weather and Forecasting ◽

10.1175/2010waf2222422.1 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 26 (2) ◽

pp. 129-149 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Brian A. Colle ◽

Michael E. Charles

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

North America ◽

East Coast ◽

Eastern Pacific ◽

Central Pressure ◽

Global Forecast System ◽

Eastern United States ◽

Forecast System ◽

Western Atlantic ◽

The U.S

Abstract Short- to medium-range (1–5 day) forecasts of extratropical cyclones around North America and its adjacent oceans are verified within the Global Forecast System (GFS) model at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) during the 2002–07 cool seasons (October–March). Cyclones in the immediate lee of the Rockies and U.S. Great Plains have 25%–50% smaller pressure errors than other regions after hour 36. The central pressure and displacement errors are largest over the central and eastern Pacific for the 42–72-h forecast, while the western and central Atlantic pressure errors for 96–120 h are similar to the central and eastern Pacific. For relatively strong cyclones, the western Atlantic and central/eastern Canada pressure errors are larger than those for the Pacific by 108–120 h. There are large spatial variations in the central pressure biases at 72–120 h, with overdeepened GFS cyclones (negative errors) extending from the northern Pacific and Bering Strait eastward to western Canada, while underdeepened GFS cyclones (positive errors) occur across northeast Canada and just east of the U.S. east coast. GFS cyclone tracks and spatial composites using the daily NCEP reanalysis are used to illustrate flow patterns and source regions for some of the large GFS cyclone errors and biases. Relatively large central pressure errors over the central Pacific early in the forecast (30 h) spread eastward over Canada by 66 h and the eastern United States by 84 h. The underdeepened GFS cyclone errors (>1.5 standard deviations) at day 4 over the western Atlantic are associated with an anomalous ridge over the western United States and trough over the eastern United States, and most of the underdeepening occurs with cyclones tracking east-northeastward across the Gulf Stream. Many of the overdeepened cyclones have tracks more parallel to the U.S. east coast. The underdeepened cyclones over the central and eastern Pacific tend to occur farther south (35°–45°N) than the overdeepened events.

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The Coastal Ocean Forecast System for the US East Coast

OCEANS 96 MTS/IEEE Conference Proceedings. The Coastal Ocean - Prospects for the 21st Century ◽

10.1109/oceans.1996.572618 ◽

2002 ◽

Author(s):

F. Aikman

Keyword(s):

East Coast ◽

Coastal Ocean ◽

Forecast System ◽

The Us ◽

Us East Coast

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A framework to evaluate and elucidate the driving mechanisms of coastal sea surface pCO<sub>2</sub> seasonality using an ocean general circulation model (MOM6-COBALT)

10.5194/os-2021-70 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Alizée Roobaert ◽

Laure Resplandy ◽

Goulven Gildas Laruelle ◽

Enhui Liao ◽

Pierre Regnier

Keyword(s):

Biological Activity ◽

Ocean Circulation ◽

Temporal Variability ◽

East Coast ◽

Coastal Ocean ◽

Sea Surface ◽

Coastal Environments ◽

Coastal Regions ◽

Thermal Changes ◽

The U.S

Abstract. The temporal variability of the sea surface partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) and the underlying processes driving this variability are poorly understood in the coastal ocean. In this study, we tailor an existing method that quantifies the effects of thermal changes, biological activity, ocean circulation and fresh water fluxes to examine seasonal pCO2 changes in highly-variable coastal environments. We first use the Modular Ocean Model version 6 (MOM6) and biogeochemical module Carbon Ocean Biogeochemistry And Lower Trophics version 2 (COBALTv2) at a half degree resolution to simulate the coastal CO2 dynamics and evaluate it against pCO2 from the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas database (SOCAT) and from the continuous coastal pCO2 product generated from SOCAT by a two-step neuronal network interpolation method (coastal-SOM-FFN, Laruelle et al., 2017). The MOM6-COBALT model not only reproduces the observed spatio-temporal variability in pCO2 but also in sea surface temperature, salinity, nutrients, in most coastal environments except in a few specific regions such as marginal seas. Based on this evaluation, we identify coastal regions of ‘high’ and ‘medium’ model skill where the drivers of coastal pCO2 seasonal changes can be examined with reasonable confidence. Second, we apply our decomposition method in three contrasted coastal regions: an Eastern (East coast of the U.S) and a Western (the Californian Current) boundary current and a polar coastal region (the Norwegian Basin). Results show that differences in pCO2 seasonality in the three regions are controlled by the balance between ocean circulation, biological and thermal changes. Circulation controls the pCO2 seasonality in the Californian Current, biological activity controls pCO2 in the Norwegian Basin, while the interplay between biology, thermal and circulation changes is key in the East coast of the U.S. The refined approach presented here allows the attribution of pCO2 changes with small residual biases in the coastal ocean, allowing future work on the mechanisms controlling coastal air-sea CO2 exchanges and how they are likely to be affected by future changes in sea surface temperature, hydrodynamics and biological dynamics.

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